June 2026 Market Update

While the national headlines turn negative, Perth is still going up. Cotality’s national Home Value Index fell 0.4% in June, its largest monthly drop since December 2022, with the combined capitals down 0.6%. Sydney fell 1.2% and Melbourne 1.0% over the month (Cotality). Perth did the opposite: values rose 0.7% for the month and 23.9% over the year to June, the strongest annual growth of any capital city. This is worth being blunt about. There is no single “Australian market.” The east coast is correcting under affordability, rate and budget pressure while Perth keeps climbing. A national slowdown is not a Perth slowdown.

Cotality’s Perth median dwelling value held above $1.04 million ($1,046,551) and was up 2.0% over the June quarter. REIWA’s separate measure tells the same story. Perth’s median house price rose to $935,000 in June, up 1.63% on May 2026, 5.65% on the quarter and 18.35% on June 2025. Momentum is easing (May’s monthly gain was 2.68%), but the direction is firmly up. What is shifting is supply. Total listings climbed to 6,114, up 14.71% on May 2026 and 53.97% above the same week a year earlier (June 2025), the most stock buyers have had in years, though still well below the roughly 10,000-12,000 a balanced Perth market needs. Sales eased to 644 for the week (from 685 in May 2026) and the sales-to-stock ratio slipped to 9.5% (from 11.4% in May 2026). House rents held at $750 per week, up 10.29% on June 2025; unit rents held at $700, up 7.69%.

The City of Melville stayed firm. The REIWA median house price edged up to $1,600,000 in June, up 0.47% on May 2026, 4.75% on the quarter and 15.66% on June 2025. Listings eased to 139 (from 145 in May 2026) and the sales-to-stock ratio held at about 39%. The one softening signal is speed: median days to sell rose to 17, from 12 in May 2026, so buyers have a little more room. By historical standards, that is still a quick market.

Across MGP’s core suburbs (realestate.com.au), total listings sat at 158 in June, up modestly on 152 in May 2026:

• Alfred Cove: 3

• Applecross: 58

• Ardross: 7

• Attadale: 15

• Bicton: 9

• Booragoon: 9

• Melville: 15

• Mount Pleasant: 33

• Myaree: 1

• East Fremantle: 8

Stock has lifted in pockets (Mount Pleasant and Applecross) while others (Alfred Cove, Myaree, East Fremantle) remain very thin.

Key Market Drivers

What is actually moving the market. After three rises earlier in 2026, the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% on 16 June 2026, a pause rather than a turn, with the door left open to more if inflation stays high. Inflation remains above the 2 to 3% target (CPI indicator 4.2% annually in April 2026). Consumer sentiment fell 2.9% in June (Westpac-Melbourne Institute) and stays deeply pessimistic, with homebuyer confidence weak. The federal budget’s proposed negative gearing and capital gains tax changes are a fresh downside risk to investor demand, felt mostly in the investor-heavy eastern markets. Iron ore held around US$107 per tonne in early June, still underpinning WA’s economy and jobs. That mix, a strong resource economy, population growth and chronic undersupply, is exactly why Perth is holding while the east coast slips.

Current Market Climate (June 2026)

Here is the no-nonsense version. The national number is falling, and plenty of coverage will run with “housing downturn.” For Perth, that framing is simply wrong. Prices are still rising, just at a calmer pace, and the extra stock is rebalancing the market rather than breaking it. Buyers no longer have the frantic urgency of six months ago, so accurate pricing and strong presentation matter more than they did; the days of listing anything and watching it run are over. A split is already showing among sellers. Some priced for the frenzy of recent years, counted on a first-week sale, and when it did not come, got nervous and cut their price. Others accepted that days on market have lengthened, held their nerve, and are still achieving strong, rising prices. That is the real lesson of this market: prices keep climbing for sellers who adjust their expectations to a slower pace, not their price out of panic. Buyers finally have more choice and time, but the underlying shortage has not gone away, and well-located, well-presented homes are still selling quickly and for strong prices. Sydney is not Perth, and Melbourne is not Melville. Follow the local data, not the national mood.