July Market Update

Australia’s housing downturn widened in July, but Perth remains the exception that proves the rule. According to Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), the national Home Value Index fell 0.7% in July – the largest single-month decline since December 2022 – dragging the quarterly change to -1.9%, while the annual figure is still positive at 5.3% and the national median sits at $928,421. The combined capitals fell 0.9% for the month. Sydney (-1.4%) and Melbourne (-1.2%) continue to lead the decline, and the softness has now spread to the mid-sized capitals, with Brisbane (-0.6%) and Adelaide (-0.2%) both posting a second consecutive monthly fall. Perth once again bucked the trend, edging up 0.1% and holding the strongest annual growth of any capital in the country.

Cotality put Perth’s median dwelling value at $1,029,797 after that modest 0.1% lift in July. It’s a long way from the pace of a year ago: the 3-month change has now tipped negative for the first time this cycle at -0.3%, even as the 12-month figure remains a market-leading 20.5%. Cotality also revised Perth’s June result down by 120 basis points into negative territory – a clear signal that momentum has cooled from the top. No bull, no bust: Perth is still the last capital standing, but the run of near-automatic monthly gains is behind us for now.

The bigger story this month is stock. REIWA reported 4,682 houses for sale across Perth at the end of July, up from 4,290 in June and 3,742 in May – three straight months of building supply. Total listings across houses, units and land reached 6,784, an 11.0% jump on June and more than double the 3,292 on the market at the same time last year. Buyers stayed active, with 753 sales recorded in the final week of July (up from 644 the month prior). More homes are coming to market and people are still buying, but the extreme scarcity that powered the last two years of growth is easing.

Closer to home, the City of Melville median house price held firm at $1,600,000 in July, unchanged on June and up 14.3% over the year. Listings rose to 169 while sales eased slightly to 86 transactions. The number to watch is time on market: median days to sell has climbed from 12 in May to 17 in June and 25 in July. That’s the clearest local sign the premium end is normalising – buyers now have more choice, and more room to negotiate, than they’ve had in some time.

Across our core local suburbs, listings rose around 19% on June. Bicton led the charge, effectively doubling from 9 to 18, with Applecross (58 to 68), Booragoon (9 to 14) and smaller lifts in Alfred Cove, Ardross and Attadale all adding stock. Melville was steady, Mount Pleasant flat at 33, and Myaree the lone exception, easing back to nil. This is a broad-based build, not a one-suburb blip.

So what does it actually mean? This is where Perth stands apart. While the downturn has now spread to almost every capital, Perth was one of just three still rising in July (+0.1%) and sits barely 0.4% below its May peak – Sydney and Melbourne are already down more than 5% from theirs. Perth’s 20.5% annual growth leads the nation, ahead of Darwin (16.3%) and Brisbane (14.8%), and Regional WA (+19.8%) isn’t far behind. Put simply, we are not part of the correction the eastern states are now wearing.

That said, the honest read is that the pace has finally turned. Perth’s quarterly figure has slipped to -0.3%, its first negative reading this cycle, and the clearest local signs are in our own numbers: City of Melville days-to-sell has doubled from 12 to 25, and listings are up around 19% in a month. The RBA held rates in June and the cash rate looks to be at its peak, but the Governor flagged a tightening

bias in July and the market has already worn 75 basis points of hikes this year. With negative-gearing changes from the May Budget shifting the investor calculus and the temporary fuel excise discount ending, buyer confidence is fragile. The fundamentals underpinning our patch – population growth, low unemployment and still-tight rentals – remain firmly in place, so we’re not calling a correction. But with stock building and the top end where any softening shows first, the balance of power is tilting toward buyers for the first time this cycle. If you’ve been waiting for choice and negotiating room, this is the window starting to open.